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bondIT’s AI Credit Risk Forecast Reveals High Risk Across Consumer Goods Industries, Improvement in the Travel Industry

 

NEW YORK/TEL AVIV (Herzliya), July 31, 2023 — The latest Scorable AI Industry Credit Risk Indicator Q3 report released by bondIT, a leading provider of credit analytics and next-generation investment technology, unveils a diverse range of credit risk levels across industries worldwide.

According to the report, industries with the highest aggregate risk of rating downgrades in the next 12 months include Consumer Goods (22%), Household Goods (24%), and Household Products (26%), which encompasses beauty, hygiene, health, and nutrition brands. These sectors continue to face challenging conditions that contribute to the elevated credit risk.

In contrast, positive developments have been observed in the tourism and related sectors, with the Airline industry experiencing a notable decline in credit risk. The credit risk for the Airline industry dropped to 12 per cent in the third quarter, a significant improvement from 19 percent in Q2. Additionally, the aggregate credit risk in the Travel & Tourism industry decreased by 3 percentage points to 15 per cent. This decrease can be attributed to pent-up demand in the wake of Covid, giving the travel industry a much-needed boost.

Dr. David Curtis, Head of Global Client Business at bondIT, commented on the findings, stating, “Credit risk is a mixed bag at the moment. While we have seen an improvement in the Travel & Tourism sector, credit risk across consumer and retail sectors remains stubbornly high. Despite the challenges, there are great opportunities in the market now, particularly with the increased yield that many issuers are offering. Investors need to be vigilant though, as our Scorable AI is also signaling an increased risk of Falling Angels.”

The report indicates that the probability of Falling Angels, though rising slightly, remains a point of concern. Currently, 14.1% of BBB- issuers globally show a high risk of a rating downgrade in the next 12 months. Emerging market issuers have experienced a slight decrease in this risk, from 24.6% to 22.7%. However, the risk of Falling Angels in the US and Europe has increased, from 8.8% to 11.1% and 8.4% to 9.5% of BBB- issuers, respectively.

As credit conditions continue to evolve, it becomes crucial for investors to stay informed about the changing risk landscape. bondIT’s credit analytics platform, Scorable, harnesses machine learning and explainable-AI to predict downgrade and upgrade probability of nearly 3,000 rated corporate and financial issuers worldwide within a 12-month time frame The Rating Transition Model analyses more than 250 data variables daily including solvency ratios, capital requirements, profitability, and efficiency ratios. The platform provides actionable insights for investors, allowing them to monitor corporate bond ratings and spreads, and anticipate rating changes and investment opportunities, ahead of the market.

Want to get access to Scorable to check which issuers are at most at risk? Contact the bondIT team.

* Emerging Markets include Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Poland, Turkey, India, Indonesia, China, and South Korea.

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First Rate and bondIT Announce Strategic Partnership to Provide AI-Driven Fixed Income Analysis and Reporting Solutions for the US Wealth Market

Arlington, TX/New York, NY – June 26, 2023 – First Rate, a leading provider of wealth management solutions to the financial services marketplace, and bondIT, a leading provider of next-generation investment technology, announced today their partnership to provide advanced Explainable AI (XAI) technology and an innovative API-driven client reporting tool to wealth management firms.  This strategic partnership is driven by the initiative to facilitate better investment decision making and enhance transparency.

bondIT’s Scorable solution, leverages the analytical power of Machine Learning and Explainable AI to turn data into actionable insights and helps firms to anticipate critical bond rating changes ahead of the market. Scorable Credit Analytics predicts downgrade and upgrade probability of more than 3,000 rated corporate and financial issuers worldwide within a 12-month timeframe. The Scorable Rating Transition Model analyses more than 250 unique variables daily, allowing wealth managers to make informed investment decisions, outperform peers, and stay ahead of fixed-income changes. Thanks to its XAI approach, Scorable creates transparency and enables users to understand the drivers behind the predictions.

“Through our partnership, bondIT and First Rate empower wealth managers with advanced tools and capabilities to enhance their credit risk research and reporting,” explains David Curtis, Partner at bondIT.

“By leveraging technology, wealth managers can make well-informed investment decisions, effectively manage exposures, and provide comprehensive insights to clients,” adds Andrew Merrill, Head of North America Sales at bondIT.

First Rate’s AI-driven reporting tool allows wealth managers to customize their client reports by integrating Scorable’s Explainable AI technology using custom APIs and widgets. With the ability to pull in data from structured and unstructured data sources, this integration allows the advisor to aggregate data sets and communicate the full investment story as well as upside and downside trends including advanced reporting options such as average rating transition classes and rating trends. Our team of data and performance experts provide recommendations to support strategic objectives.

“The partnership of First Rate and bondIT adds strategic value to customers of both firms by providing insight into their fixed income assets’ risk and opportunities through explainable AI and top-tier client reporting.”, says Alex Serman, Managing Director of Wealth at First Rate. “Combining the analytics with holistic reporting will create more informed conversations with clients and deepen advisor relationships while creating value to the portfolio.”

The First Rate and bondIT partnership empowers advisors to broaden research capacity and efficiently manage their exposures through volatile market environments as well as create transparent and compelling investment stories for their clients.

 

About First Rate

First Rate exists to help wealth management companies grow and thrive as stewards of their clients’ investments. Our innovative services and solutions help financial firms create absolute transparency, enhance efficiency, and empower advisors to create more meaningful and intelligent investment strategies for their clients. It’s technology as it should be.

First Rate’s flexible solutions adapt to the evolving demands and complex challenges of the wealth management industry. With a proven track record including more than 30 years of experience, our relentless focus on meeting the diverse needs of our partners is unmatched in the industry.

Through data aggregation, performance calculation, client reporting, and intelligent data analytics backed by a powerful AI engine, our innovative technologies enable wealth managers to grow their businesses by enhancing efficiency and providing strategic value to investors.

Website: www.FirstRate.com

Follow us: @FirstRatePerf

 

About bondIT

bondIT provides next generation front office investment technology. We combine Data Science, Explainable-AI (XAI) and Advanced Technologies with Fixed Income investment know-how to improve the performance, accuracy and efficiency of our clients’ investment processes and businesses. bondIT is privately owned and paving the way for financial institutions of all sizes to integrate the power of greater technology in their investment processes. bondIT adheres to the highest privacy and security standards and is SOC 2 certified by Ernst & Young. For more information, please visit bonditglobal.com and follow us on LinkedIn.

 

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News

Pershing’s John Goodheart introduces Bondwise on Bloomberg

John Goodheart, head of trading services at Pershing, talks to Bloomberg about  the evolution of fixed income investing and the launch of Bondwise, a new destination wealth platform by bondIT & Pershing. 

Click here to listen to the full interview: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2023-06-08/conversations-from-insite-audio 

In the Bloomberg interview, John Goodheart emphasizes the significant growth in retail demand for fixed income, surpassing industry metrics by 3x the previous year’s par value. This surge in demand has prompted advisors to seek support after their primary focus on equities in recent years. 

“Retail demand for fixed income investments has increased significantly”

Pershing has teamed up with bondIT to create a destination bond platform for advisors and broker-dealers. The platform has been branded Bondwise because it helps advisors become wiser about bond investing. 

The platform offers a user-friendly solution, enabling clients to navigate the fixed income market and make informed investment decisions. It leverages bondIT’s artificial intelligence-driven technology to optimize fixed income portfolios based on customized criteria such as yields to maturity and ratings. Clients, including those primarily focused on equities, can review the platform’s recommendations and execute trades by using the Buy and Sell button. 

“bondIT helps clients navigate the fixed income market”

Advisors and broker-dealers can access Bondwise via Pershing’s NetX 360 platform. As fixed income investments gain prominence again, bondIT’s technology assists advisors in effectively navigating this evolving landscape. 

To find out more about our technology or to arrange a demo, contact the bondIT team now. 

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Fundamentum drives fixed income AUM growth with bondIT Orion Integration

Fundamentum uses bondIT’s investment technology integrated with Orion to scale growth in its fixed income business

NEW YORK, NY, February 22, 2023bondIT, a leading provider of next-generation investment technology, announced today that Fundamentum Investment Management has begun using bondIT’s portfolio optimization and credit research solution integrated with Orion’s advisor technology platform.

Fundamentum was looking for technology to help them efficiently scale their fixed income business and optimize risk-return outcomes. They selected bondIT’s Frontier portfolio construction technology to position client portfolios systematically on the efficient frontier and later incorporated bondIT’s Scorable AI-based credit research solution to enable credit-aware portfolio construction and rebalancing.

Using Scorable and Frontier together has allowed Fundamentum to systematically reduce exposure to deteriorating credits while substituting higher-quality bonds with equal or better yield. The final piece of the puzzle for efficiency and scale gains was Fundamentum’s integration of bondIT’s technology with the Orion platform.

Fundamentum’s Robert Armagno, CFA, said, “Using bondIT integrated with Orion has allowed us to move our fixed income portfolio management to levels we couldn’t reach without this technology. We can generate and rebalance proposals in seconds while adhering to the objectives and constraints that advisors and their clients have formulated. bondIT is a proposal generation machine for us, and a huge competitive advantage when it comes to managing and growing our fixed income business.”

Dan Taylor, Head of Americas at bondIT, said, “We’re delighted that Fundamentum has opted for bondIT’s technology to help them expand their fixed income business and attract new clients. Our platform enables Fundamentum to automate crucial parts of their portfolio management and research process, improving efficiency, performance and scale.“

Frontier is bondIT’s cutting-edge portfolio construction and management platform that helps investment professionals make data-driven decisions and streamline their workflows. It allows users to generate and rebalance portfolios based on different optimization criteria, individually configurable portfolio objectives and bond level constraints within minutes.

Scorable is bondIT’s innovative technology for evaluating and projecting credit rating changes in fixed income securities. It utilizes machine learning algorithms to analyze a wide range of data points and provides actionable insights.

Mr. Armagno adds, “Frontier has been a game changer for our team. It has significantly improved our ability to analyze and construct portfolios and has saved us a tremendous amount of time. Scorable has revolutionized the way we approach credit and relative value analysis. It’s a consistent and reliable framework and has enhanced our ability to identify risk as well as attractive investment opportunities.”

– Ends –

 

About Fundamentum Investment Management

Fundamentum, an SEC registered investment adviser, provides portfolio management services for wrap fee programs sponsored by its affiliated registered investment advisers within the Stratos Wealth Holdings family of companies, which includes Stratos Wealth Partners and Stratos Wealth Advisors. Fundamentum is based in Beachwood, Ohio and provides disciplined investment strategies tailored to clients’ risk tolerance and objectives. As Fundamentum’s team helps manage portfolios alongside over 350 Advisors, tools that can help create efficiency and scale are critical.

Stratos Wealth Partners, Ltd., an SEC Registered Investment Advisor, manages over $8.7 billion in advisory assets, and advises through LPL Financial, over $6.7 billion in brokerage and third-party managed assets for a total of $15.4 billion as of September 30, 2022.

Fundamentum, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor, manages over $1 billion in advisory assets as of September 30, 2022.

Stratos Wealth Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor, manages over $2.4 billion in advisory assets and over $13 million in third party managed assets as of September 30, 2022.

Stratos Wealth Management DBA LPL Financial, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor, manages over $270 million in advisory assets, and advises through LPL Financial, over $287 million in brokerage and third-party managed assets for a total of $557 million as of September 30, 2022.

 

About bondIT

bondIT provides next generation front office investment technology. We combine Data Science, Explainable-AI (XAI) and Advanced Technologies with Fixed Income investment know-how to improve the performance, accuracy and efficiency of our clients’ investment processes and businesses. bondIT is privately owned and paving the way for financial institutions of all sizes to integrate the power of greater technology in their investment processes. bondIT adheres to the highest privacy and security standards and is SOC 2 certified by Ernst & Young. For more information, please visit bonditglobal.com and follow us on LinkedIn.

 

Nothing within this press release should be relied upon as investment advice, and nothing within shall confer rights or remedies upon, you or any of your employees, creditors, holders of securities or other equity holders or any other person. bondIT expressly disclaims all representations and warranties, express, implied, statutory or otherwise.

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Blog News

Scorable AI Credit Risk Outlook 2023: Rising Stars to outnumber Falling Angels

Scorable, bondIT’s AI-driven Credit Analytics, indicates a sizeable amount of rating migrations for corporate and financial issuers in 2023 with Rising Stars set to outnumber Falling Angels. This is good news for investors who can catch rating upgrades early on as they can benefit from higher yields and price appreciation.  

As high market volatility persists though, investors need to be selective. Many companies had to clean up their balance sheets driven by the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic and therefore enter the year from a position of relative strength, but the macro-outlook remains challenging. Anticipating directional credit changes early helps to effectively manage risk, discover new investment opportunities, and build portfolios that optimally balance risks and returns. 

Our latest analysis indicates that 45.7% of the nearly 200 BB+ rated issuers in the Scorable universe have a high or very high rating upgrade probability in the next 12 months, with most Rising Stars to occur in Europe and the US. 

Credit Risk across Regions: Around half of BB+ Issuers in Europe and the US could become Rising Stars in 2023 

 

The risk of Falling Angels is highest in Emerging Markets* where 20% of BBB- rated issuers display a high or very high downgrade probability. Across the globe, 11.8% of BBB- issuers in the Scorable universe are at risk of becoming Falling Angels within the next 12 months. 

Credit Risk across Regions: Risk of Falling Angels highest in Emerging Markets in 2023 

Scorable, bondIT’s credit analytics platform, harnesses machine learning and explainable-AI to predict downgrade and upgrade probability of nearly 3,000 rated corporate and financial issuers worldwide within a 12-month timeframe. The Rating Transition Model analyses more than 250 data variables daily including solvency ratios, capital requirements, profitability, and efficiency ratios. 

Want to find out which companies are most likely to become Rising Stars or Falling Angels? Log into Scorable now or contact our team for more info.
 

*Emerging Markets include Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Poland, Turkey, India, Indonesia, China, and South Korea. 

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News

bondIT Receives a Strategic Investment from BNY Mellon to Drive Digitization of Fixed Income Investing

New York/Tel Aviv-Herzliya, 6 December 2022 bondIT, a provider of next-generation investment technology, announced today that it has raised $14M in a new investment round led by BNY Mellon, with participation by existing investors. As part of the investment, BNY Mellon will join bondIT’s Board of Directors.

John Goodheart, Managing Director, BNY Mellon, who will represent the company on the board, said, “Collaborating with bondIT will allow us to deliver innovative digital solutions for fixed income investors by enabling investment professionals to explore new investment options more easily through the use of AI, further expanding their portfolio optimization capabilities for clients.”

Etai Ravid, CEO and Founder of bondIT, shared, “We’re delighted to welcome BNY Mellon to our Board of Directors. This investment will help us accelerate innovation and offer clients a unique holistic solution for fixed income investing. As bond investors are keen to lock in higher yields, our versatile technology and data-driven approach can help them increase automation to improve efficiency and performance, and better mitigate risk.”

Shahar Balaban, CFO at bondIT, added, “Our engagement with BNY Mellon started when we participated in the BNY Mellon Accelerator Program for startups in 2021, and we are thrilled to be able to continue to scale our collaboration and take bondIT’s technology platform to the next level.”

bondIT combines advanced technologies, machine learning and Explainable-AI in a unique platform that automates and optimizes fixed income portfolio construction, management, and research. bondIT’s technology enables fixed income investors to create credit and yield-optimized portfolios based on data-driven analytics in minutes, boosting performance, efficiency, and scale.

This latest investment round comes at an opportune time for bondIT as there is unprecedented demand for smart technologies, like bondIT’s Explainable-AI tool, from fixed income investors who are seeking efficiency and the ability to manage their exposures effectively. With bondIT, investment professionals can build portfolios that seek to optimally balance risk and return opportunities in this volatile market environment.

In addition to BNY Mellon, bondIT is backed by a number of high-profile investors and partners across the globe, including Fosun, SixThirty, Talanx AG and Win.d.

-END-

 

ABOUT bondIT

bondIT provides next generation front office investment technology. We combine Data Science, Explainable-AI (XAI) and Advanced Technologies with Fixed Income investment know-how to improve the performance, accuracy and efficiency of our clients’ investment processes and businesses. Our technology enables clients to efficiently build, analyze and rebalance investment portfolios, and achieve within minutes what previously took hours or days. Thanks to bondIT’s predictive credit analytics, investors can anticipate changes in corporate credit risk and capitalize on investment opportunities ahead of the market. The platform is highly flexible, being data agnostic and API or cloud based, and allows for the seamless onboarding of internal models as well as downstream connectivity to existing portfolio management and trading systems. bondIT is privately owned and paving the way for financial institutions of all sizes to integrate the power of greater technology in their investment processes. bondIT adheres to the highest privacy and security standards and is SOC 2 certified by Ernst & Young. For more information, please visit www.bonditglobal.com.

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Blog News

2023 Credit Risk Outlook: Household Goods & Household Product Industries Face Highest Rating Downgrade Risk, Followed by Travel & Tourism and Airlines

 

New York/London/Tel Aviv (Herzliya), 6 December 2022 According to bondIT‘s Scorable AI Industry Credit Risk Indicator, the industries with the highest risk of rating downgrades in 2023 are Household Goods (29%) and Household Products (27%), followed by Travel & Tourism (24%) and Airlines (24%).

Industries with the lowest aggregate downgrade probability in the next year include Aerospace & Defence (10%); Energy (10%) and Banking (8%).

The latest analysis from bondIT, a provider of credit analytics and next-gen fixed income technology, indicates that the probability of a rating downgrade has increased most within the Households Goods industry, rising from 9 per cent in January to 29 per cent December 2022. Household Products – which includes hygiene, personal, beauty, home care, health, and nutrition brands – saw the second highest increase of aggregated downgrade risk to credit this year, from 14 to 27 per cent.

Whilst the Airlines industry and Travel & Tourism saw a small drop in rating downgrade probability since the start of the year (-3%), overall credit risk across these sectors remains high at 24 percent.

bondIT’s credit analytics platform, Scorable, harnesses machine learning and explainable-AI to predict downgrade and upgrade probability of nearly 3,000 rated corporate and financial issuers worldwide within a 12-month timeframe. The Rating Transition Model analyses more than 250 data variables daily including solvency ratios, capital requirements, profitability, and efficiency ratios. The platform provides actionable insights for investors, allowing them to monitor corporate bond ratings and spreads, and anticipate rating changes and investment opportunities, ahead of the market.

For more information, please contact the bondIT team.

ABOUT bondIT

bondIT provides next generation front office investment technology. We combine Data Science, Explainable-AI (XAI) and Advanced Technologies with Fixed Income investment know-how to improve the performance, accuracy and efficiency of our clients’ investment processes and businesses. Our technology enables clients to efficiently build, analyze and rebalance investment portfolios, and achieve within minutes what previously took hours or days. Thanks to bondIT’s predictive credit analytics, investors can anticipate changes in corporate credit risk and capitalize on investment opportunities ahead of the market. The platform is highly flexible, being data agnostic and API or cloud based, and allows for the seamless onboarding of internal models as well as downstream connectivity to existing portfolio management and trading systems. bondIT is privately owned and paving the way for financial institutions of all sizes to integrate the power of greater technology in their investment processes. bondIT adheres to the highest privacy and security standards and is SOC 2 certified by Ernst & Young. For more information, please visit www.bonditglobal.com.

 

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News

Credit downgrade probability in Household Goods sector increases by 13%, while Airlines sector retains greatest risk of downgrades overall

  • bondIT’s Scorable Credit Upgrade & Downgrade Forecast indicates that aggregated downgrade risk has increased the most in the Household Goods Sector, moving from 16% to 29% over the past quarter.
  • At 31%, the downgrade probability of corporate debt is greater in the Airlines sector than in any other industry
  • The change in upgrade probability of corporate debt is either negative or neutral for 12 of the 14 sectors analysed; however, the upgrade potential in the Energy and Hotels, Resorts and Casinos sector has increased by 2% and 1% respectively
  • bondIT’s predictive credit analytics, powered by machine learning and explainable-AI, analyses more than 250 data variables daily including solvency ratios, capital requirements, profitability, and efficiency ratios

London/Berlin/Israel, 1 November 2022 – The latest Scorable Credit Upgrade & Downgrade forecast from bondIT, a provider of credit analytics and next-gen fixed income technology, indicates that the probability of achieving a negative change to a credit rating has increased most within the Households Goods sector in the third quarter of 2022. The downgrade potential has increased by 13%, from 16% in Q2 to 29% in Q3.

Following Household Goods, Household Products – which includes hygiene, personal, beauty, home care, health, and nutrition brands – saw the second highest increase of aggregated downgrade risk to credit over in the past quarter. The downgrade probability of the sector’s corporate debt rose by 6%.

Aggregated risk has increased in the Airlines industry, by 2% quarter-on-quarter and by 5% since the start of 2022. The strength of the dollar has renewed pressure on the airline industry’s balance sheets, driving up costs, from fuel to the aircrafts themselves. With the downgrade potential now at 31%, it is the industry most at risk of being downgraded, followed by Travel & Tourism and Household Products at 30%.

David Curtis, Partner at bondIT, said: “Anticipating changes in credit risk and understanding market dynamics early is crucial in this volatile market environment. There is a real opportunity for bond investors now to take advantage of higher yields, but we also see a lot of risk in the market. High-quality data is paramount to understanding credit risk and to achieve optimal bond allocation. The challenge faced by many fixed income investors, in the face of increasing margin pressure and resource constraints, is how to translate huge amounts of raw data into useful intelligence. This is where AI offers real added value. In a competitive landscape, better data drives better performance and that’s where bondIT is able to really harness technology to create a lasting competitive advantage, improve productivity and efficiency for our clients.”

Against a challenging economic backdrop of rising interest rates, reduced consumer spending and high inflation, the Technology sector also faces headwinds. The downgrade probability is now 15%, an increase of 2% over the past quarter, and 4% since the start of the year. The downgrade probabilities in the Automotive and Biopharma industries have also increased by 3% and 2% respectively.

Aggregated risk in the Energy sector has, in comparison, reduced quarter-on-quarter in line with rising profits. After a -2% decline in upgrade potential between Q1 and Q2, there has been a 2% reversal in Q3. The upgrade probability for corporate bonds is now 23%.

bondIT’s credit analytics platform, Scorable, harnesses machine learning and explainable-AI to predict downgrade and upgrade probability of more than 3,000 rated corporate and financial issuers worldwide within a 12-month timeframe. The Rating Transition Model analyses more than 250 data variables daily including solvency ratios, capital requirements, profitability, and efficiency ratios. The platform provides actionable insights for investors, allowing them to monitor corporate bond ratings and spreads, and anticipate rating changes and investment opportunities, ahead of the market.

About bondIT

bondIT provides next generation front office investment technology. We combine Data Science, Explainable-AI (XAI) and Advanced Technologies with Fixed Income investment know-how to improve the performance, accuracy and efficiency of our clients’ investment processes and businesses. Our technology enables clients to efficiently build, analyze and rebalance investment portfolios, and achieve within minutes what previously took hours or days. Thanks to bondIT’s predictive credit analytics, investors can anticipate changes in corporate credit risk and capitalise on investment opportunities ahead of the market. The platform is highly flexible, being data agnostic and API or cloud based, and allows for the seamless onboarding of internal models as well as downstream connectivity to existing portfolio management and trading systems. bondIT adheres to the highest privacy and security standards and is SOC 2 certified by Ernst & Young. bondIT is privately owned and paving the way for financial institutions of all sizes to integrate the power of greater technology in their investment processes. For more information, please visit www.bonditglobal.com.

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Credit Risk Across Regions: Falling Angels in Europe set to outnumber their US peers

 

bondIT’s AI-driven Credit Analytics predicts that US will see most Rising Stars in the next year

Scorable, bondIT’s AI-driven Credit Analytics, indicates that 6.3% of corporate and financial issuers in Europe are at high or medium risk of becoming Falling Angels* in the next 12 months, compared to only 2.1% of US issuers. The analysis also shows that the US and Canada will see the highest number of Rising Stars** in the next 12 months, with more than 90 companies (7.0%) having a high or medium probability of transitioning from high-yield to investment-grade.

David Curtis, Partner at bondIT, said: “The economic outlook across the globe is increasingly bleak as sky-high inflation and rising interest rates dampen the outlook. Companies in Europe are disproportionately affected by supply shortages and mounting energy insecurity as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues. However, in spite of rising bond yields, there is opportunity for investors to generate strong returns – if they manage their exposures well. Anticipating directional credit changes early helps to effectively manage risk, discover new investment opportunities, and build portfolios that optimally balance risks and returns in this challenging environment.”

bondIT’s analysis looks at BBB- and BB+ rated issuers, which sit directly at the intersection of investment-grade and high-yield and are therefore most likely to become Falling Angels or Rising Stars. In addition, BBB and BB rated issuers with high rating transition probabilities were also included.

Scorable, bondIT’s credit analytics platform, harnesses machine learning and explainable-AI to predict downgrade and upgrade probability of nearly 3,000 rated corporate and financial issuers worldwide within a 12-month timeframe. The Rating Transition Model analyses more than 250 data variables daily including solvency ratios, capital requirements, profitability, and efficiency ratios.

* Companies at risk of becoming Falling Angels are issuers with (very) high downgrade probability, according to Scorable’s Rating Transition Model, and BBB- rating (high risk) or BBB rating (medium risk)

** Companies likely to become Rising Stars are issuers with (very) high upgrade probability, according to Scorable’s Rating Transition Model, and BB+ rating (high probability) or BB rating (medium probability)

 

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Credit downgrade probability in Travel and Tourism increases by 7% in the second quarter of the year

  • bondIT’s Scorable Credit Upgrade & Downgrade Forecast indicates that downgrade risk has increased by 7% in the Travel and Tourism sector, and by 3% for the Airline industry, in Q2 2022
  • The Retail and Consumer Goods sectors also saw an average downgrade probability increase by 3% each
  • The upgrade probability across all sectors has either stayed the same or decreased
  • bondIT’s predictive credit analytics, powered by machine learning and explainable-AI, analyses more than 250 data variables daily including solvency ratios, capital requirements, profitability, and efficiency ratios

London/Berlin/Israel, 1 August 2022 – The latest Scorable Credit Upgrade & Downgrade forecast from bondIT, a provider of next-gen fixed income technology, indicates that the probability of achieving a negative change to a credit rating has increased most within the Travel and Tourism sector in the second quarter of 2022. The probability of sectors achieving a positive change has either stayed the same or decreased across all sectors.

Against a backdrop of rising fuel costs, staff constraints and strike action, the probability of a rating downgrade within the next 12 month is currently highest for credit issuers in the Travel and Tourism sector at 31%, followed by the Airline industry with 29%. For Hotels, Resorts, and Casinos – many of which will be impacted by the challenges facing holidaymakers – the downgrade probability has increased by 1% and the upgrade probability has also shrunk over the past quarter, from 21% to 19% (-2%).

Downgrade probabilities have also risen across the Consumer Goods and Retail sectors: the average downgrade potential in the Consumer Goods sector has increased by 3% in Q2 2022, from 12% to 15%, whilst the Retail sector downgrade probability has increased by the same amount, from 13% to 16%.

In addition to the rising downgrade risk, the upgrade probability has decreased across almost all sectors quarter-on-quarter, with the Consumer Goods sector seeing the biggest decrease in upgrade probability of -4%. Only the Aerospace & Defence and Banking sectors saw no change in their respective upgrade potential, which remained at 20% and 14% respectively.

“Stagflation is bad for bonds, particularly corporate bonds, delivering a one-two punch of higher interest rates and wider credit spreads to investors’ existing holdings. As the current strain of stagflation continues to infect various parts of the economy and financial markets, volatility is likely to remain high, so corporate bond investors will need to be hyper-vigilant to both risk and opportunity alike,” said David Curtis, Partner at bondIT. “Compared to the first quarter of this year, we’ve seen a notable increase in downgrade potential across a number of sectors. Amidst a more challenging environment with recessionary pressures impacting investor sentiment alongside an expected return of default cycles, the ability to anticipate critical rating changes ahead of the market has become a strategic imperative. Technology can significantly augment portfolio management and research processes so that investors can more easily manage risk, discover new investment opportunities, and build portfolios that optimally balance these risks and returns.”

 

 

bondIT’s credit analytics platform, Scorable, harnesses machine learning and explainable-AI to predict downgrade and upgrade probability of more than 3,000 rated corporate and financial issuers worldwide within a 12-month timeframe. The Rating Transition Model analyses more than 250 data variables daily including solvency ratios, capital requirements, profitability, and efficiency ratios. The platform provides actionable insights for investors, allowing them to monitor corporate bond ratings and spreads, and anticipate rating changes and investment opportunities, ahead of the market.

 

About bondIT

bondIT provides next generation front office investment technology. We combine Data Science, Explainable-AI (XAI) and Advanced Technologies with Fixed Income investment know-how to improve the performance, accuracy and efficiency of our clients’ investment processes and businesses. Our technology enables clients to efficiently build, analyze and rebalance investment portfolios, and achieve within minutes what previously took hours or days. Thanks to bondIT’s predictive credit analytics, investors can anticipate changes in corporate credit risk and capitalise on investment opportunities ahead of the market. The platform is highly flexible, being data agnostic and API or cloud based, and allows for the seamless onboarding of internal models as well as downstream connectivity to existing portfolio management and trading systems. bondIT is privately owned and paving the way for financial institutions of all sizes to integrate the power of greater technology in their investment processes. For more information, please visit www.bonditglobal.com.